The charismatic Nobel Peace Prize-winning Buddhist -- who Tibetans say is the 14th reincarnation of the 600-year-old post -- will reveal if there will be another Dalai Lama after him.
The inevitable change ahead brings wider concerns for Tibetans over the struggle to keep their identity alive after generations in exile, following a failed 1959 uprising against Chinese rule.
There is widespread support among Tibetans in exile for the Dalai Lama role to remain, said Dawa Tashi, once jailed in Tibet for his criticism of Beijing.
The Dalai Lama has said the institution will continue only if there is popular demand.
"I strongly believe the reincarnation of the 14th Dalai Lama will continue," said Tashi, of the India-based Tibetan Centre for Human Rights and Democracy.
"This hope is not only shared by Tibetans inside and outside Tibet, but by thousands who are connected to the Dalai Lama across the world," he told AFP.
The leader, who turns 90 on July 6, and thousands of other Tibetans have lived in exile in India since Chinese troops crushed the uprising in the Tibetan capital Lhasa.
The Dalai Lama has been lauded by his followers for his tireless campaign for greater autonomy for Tibet, a vast high-altitude plateau in China about the size of South Africa.
- 'Vested political interests' -
The Dalai Lama handed over political authority in 2011 to an exiled government chosen democratically by 130,000 Tibetans globally.
At the same time, he warned that the future of his spiritual post faced an "obvious risk of vested political interests misusing the reincarnation system".
Many Tibetans in exile fear China will name a successor to bolster its control over Tibet.
The Dalai Lama has said that if there is a successor it will come from the "free world" outside China's control.
The Dalai Lama has long said he does not seek full independence for Tibet.
Beijing says the territory is an integral part of China and that the Dalai Lama "has no right to represent the Tibetan people".
Whatever the Dalai Lama decides about his role, "the freedom movement must continue regardless", said Kunga Tashi, a 23-year-old Tibetan software engineer in India's tech hub Bengaluru.
"The Chinese government and even Tibetans still equate the Dalai Lama with the freedom struggle," he said. "And that is why his reincarnation feels like a turning point."
- 'Continuity of the institution' -
The Dalai Lama, recognised worldwide in his red robes and wide smile, lives an austere monastic life in India's Himalayan hill town of McLeod Ganj. He has said he wants to live until 113.
Penpa Tsering, the sikyong or head of the government which is also based in McLeod Ganj, said that senior Buddhist elders, or lamas, will meet the Dalai Lama on July 2.
The same day they will open the grand meeting of religious leaders, during which a video message by the Dalai Lama will be broadcast.
No details of its message have been released.
The Dalai Lama's translator of nearly four decades, Thupten Jinpa, believes that "the continuity of the institution will remain", meaning that, in time, there "will be a new Dalai Lama".
"Today, many young Tibetans prioritise personal success over collective struggle," said Geshema Tenzin Kunsel, a nun in her 50s from Dolma Ling Nunnery, near McLeod Ganj.
"In his absence, I fear what our future might look like."
- 'Shape our own destiny' -
Tibetans who spoke to AFP say they will keep up their campaign no matter what happens in the coming weeks.
"While we haven't yet achieved our goal of returning to a free Tibet, we've come further than anyone could have imagined -- and that's because of His Holiness (the Dalai Lama)," said Sonam Topgyal, 26, a university student in New Delhi.
Nepal-based Sakina Batt, 35, a former civil servant with the Tibetan administration, is part of Tibet's minority Muslim population.
She too believes that the reincarnation process should "continue as it has for generations, preserving its sacred tradition without interruption".
But she also said that it depended on the people, not just one leader.
"The future of Tibetans depends on unity and resilience," she said. "It's ultimately up to us to shape our own destiny."
Auspicious signs: how the Dalai Lama is identified
Mcleod Ganj, India (AFP) June 27, 2025 -
Fourteen Dalai Lamas have guided Tibet's Buddhists for the past six centuries, which believers say are reincarnations of each other, identified in opaque processes ranging from auspicious signs to divination.
China says Tibet is an integral part of the country, and many exiled Tibetans fear Beijing will name a rival successor, bolstering control over a land it poured troops into in 1950.
The 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, was born to a farming family in 1935 and has spent most of his life in exile in India.
He has said that if there is a successor, they will come from the "free world" outside China's control.
Here is how previous reincarnations were identified -- and what the current Dalai Lama says will happen.
- Oracles -
With the Dalai Lama turning 90 on July 6, he has said he will consult Tibetan religious traditions and the Tibetan public to see "if there is a consensus that the Dalai Lama institution should continue".
He has said he will "leave clear written instructions" for the future.
But he has alternatively suggested his successor could be a girl, or an insect, or that his spirit could transfer or "emanate" to an adult.
Responsibility for the recognition lies with the India-based Office of His Holiness the Dalai Lama.
The search and recognition of another leader must be "in accordance with past Tibetan Buddhist tradition", he said.
That includes consulting a protector deity, Palden Lhamo, and the oracle of Dorje Drakden, also known as Nechung, who communicates through a medium in a trance.
- Reincarnation recognition -
Tibetan Buddhists believe in all reincarnations of the "Bodhisattva of Compassion", an enlightened being who serves humanity by delaying salvation through another rebirth.
All so far have been men or boys, often identified as toddlers and taking up the role only as teenagers.
The last identification process was held in 1937.
The current Dalai Lama, then aged two, was identified when he passed a test posed by monks by correctly pointing to objects that had belonged to his predecessor.
- Auspicious signs -
Others were revealed by special signs.
The year the eighth Dalai Lama was born, in 1758, was marked by bumper harvests and a rainbow that seemingly touched his mother.
He was finally identified after trying to sit in a lotus meditation position as a toddler.
"Most ordinary beings forget their past lives," the Dalai Lama wrote in 2011.
"We need to use evidence-based logic to prove past and future rebirths to them."
- Golden urn and dough balls -
Divination, including picking names written on paper, has also been used to confirm a candidate is correct.
One method conceals the paper inside balls of dough. Another time, the name was plucked from a golden urn.
That urn is now held by Beijing, and the current Dalai Lama has warned that, when used dishonestly, it lacks "any spiritual quality".
- Tibet and abroad -
Dalai Lamas have come from noble families and nomadic herders.
Most were born in central Tibetan regions, one came from Mongolia, and another was born in India.
The Sixth Dalai Lama, Tsangyang Gyatso, was born in 1682 in Tawang, in India's northeastern Arunachal Pradesh region.
- Secrecy and disguise -
Past decisions have also been kept secret for years.
The Fifth Dalai Lama, Lobsang Gyatso, was born in 1617 and recognised as a toddler.
But his discovery was kept hidden for more than two decades due to a "turbulent political situation", the Dalai Lama's office says.
And, when he died, he told monks to say he was simply on a "long retreat".
When visitors came, an old monk would pose in his place, wearing a "hat and eyeshadow to conceal the fact that he lacked the Dalai Lama's piercing eyes".
It would take 15 years before his successor was announced.
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